Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes PDF/EPUB

Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes [PDF / Epub] ★ Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes Author Richard A. Clarke – Thomashillier.co.uk Millions of lives lost to catastrophes natural and man made could have been saved by the advance warnings of experts Can we find those prescient people before the next catastrophe strikes Two CEOs and Millions of lives lost Cassandras to eBook ↠ to catastrophes natural and man made could have been saved by Warnings: Finding PDF/EPUB or the advance warnings of experts Can we find those prescient people before the next catastrophe strikes Finding Cassandras to ePUB ✓ Two CEOs and White House national security veterans reveal insider views of previous disasters, chilling insights on today s threats to mankind, and a prescription to protect us This is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the US economy, and possibly the fate of civilizationIn Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored Modern day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, and many others Like her, they were ignored There are others right now warning of impending disasters, but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right Through riveting explorations in a variety of fields, the authors uncover a method to separate the accurate Cassandras from the crazy doomsayers They then investigate the experts who today are warning of future disasters the threats from artificial intelligence, bio hacking, mutating viruses, and and whose calls are not being heeded Their penetrating insights are essential for anyone, any business, or any government that doesn t want to be a blind victim to tomorrow s catastrophe.


10 thoughts on “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes

  1. Mike Kanner Mike Kanner says:

    My credentials in taking the position I have in this review In addition to a career in the service with the last third working as an analyst, I am currently a university lecturer in security studies, a position I have held for over twenty years My research is in the field of political psychology and its application to foreign policy I was sent this book by the publisher with a letter asking me to consider its adoption for a course That is not going to happen This represents the type of slop My credentials in taking the position I have in this review In addition to a career in the service with the last third working as an analyst, I am currently a university lecturer in security studies, a position I have held for over twenty years My research is in the field of political psychology and its application to foreign policy I was sent this book by the publisher with a letter asking me to consider its adoption for a course That is not going to happen This represents the type of sloppy research that I warn students against The authors start with a hypothesis and then commit the cardinal sin of research selection bias.By selecting only the cases that support their position that warnings are out there, they just have to be recognized they ignore that there are usually lots of predictions and the same formal and informal institutions rules that did not let their Cassandra s be recognized were in place in order to focus on the most probable Their position essentially argues that precedence, expertise, and accepting risk should be ignored That is where not addressing the null hypothesis that the predictions did not pan out reduces the credibility of their position In what I take to be their tip of the hat to the literature on prediction and decision making, they ignore much of the work on risk which is important to these types of decision While the availability bias may be operating in many cases, in these cases, it should be joined with the work on analogies Khong Neustadt and May I would also add work on status quo bias and prospect theory since many of the cases they use are better explained by those two theories than the explanations offered by the authors of bureaucratic inertia a form of status quo bias , politics prospect theory s view of risk in gain domain , or failure to have a precedence analogical reasoning If you want to read about decision and failures to heed warnings, I would recommend Khong s ANALOGIES AT WAR Jervis PERCEPTION AND MISPERCEPTION IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS Renshon and Larson s GOOD JUDGEMENT IN FOREIGN POLICY Deborah Stone s THE POLICY PARADOX or any of the work by Kahneman and Tversky I would recommend Michael Lewis THE UNDOING PROJECT A FRIENDSHIP THAT CHANGED OUR MINDS as a non academic introduction


  2. Michael Perkins Michael Perkins says:

    Well, who is right now Laurie Garretthttps www.sfgate.com opinion articlorhttps www.nytimes.com 2020 05 02 opFrom the book.sound familiar Laurie warns that while the risk of deadly microbes is increasing, governments ability to detect and respond is weakening In her best selling books, The Coming Plague and Betrayal of Trust, she meticulously discusses the decline and often wholesale absence of a competent public health infrastructure The inability to deal with these growing thr Well, who is right now Laurie Garretthttps www.sfgate.com opinion articlorhttps www.nytimes.com 2020 05 02 opFrom the book.sound familiar Laurie warns that while the risk of deadly microbes is increasing, governments ability to detect and respond is weakening In her best selling books, The Coming Plague and Betrayal of Trust, she meticulously discusses the decline and often wholesale absence of a competent public health infrastructure The inability to deal with these growing threats unveils the specter of catastrophe andso when governments are simply unwilling to take the threat seriously It is the same pattern everywhere of government mistakes, she told us, of bigotry, of ignorance Every single time I try to draw attention to an outbreak, I can tell you the particular time when I will be attacked It is always a white male who combines his attack with a comment about my appearance and usually something related to me being a female When I was on NPR the other day, someone tweeted about how fat I am That is how they discredit my point When the next pandemic strikes, all that will matter is the capacity of our public health system to detect and respond And today Referring to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and its analogues abroad, she told me, I ve heard from every CDC in the world the European CDC, the African CDC, China CDC and they say, Normally, our first call is to Atlanta, but we ain t hearing back There s nothing going on down there They ve gutted that place They ve gagged that place I can t get calls returned any Nobody down there is feeling like it s safe to talk Have you even seen anything important and vital coming out of the CDC More on the CDC from a GOP magazine What they reveal here might surprise you.https thebulwark.com wheres the bla The Four Horseman of the Covid Apocalypse.https www.rollingstone.com politics


  3. Susan Burke Susan Burke says:

    I am no expert I do not have any degrees I have not done any formal research I am not a scientist, educator, or biologist I have no credits to my account nor the authority to speak as an expert in any field What I do have is experience and a personal testimony, followed up by four years of home grown research mixed in with a bit of grassroots activism What I do know is that I just may be a Cassandra of modern day technology And the reason I know it is because modern technology rendered I am no expert I do not have any degrees I have not done any formal research I am not a scientist, educator, or biologist I have no credits to my account nor the authority to speak as an expert in any field What I do have is experience and a personal testimony, followed up by four years of home grown research mixed in with a bit of grassroots activism What I do know is that I just may be a Cassandra of modern day technology And the reason I know it is because modern technology rendered me violently sick and permanently disabled I am now a freak of the 21st century And I have an obligation to speak out and to alert others to this impending and looming threat So, can I back up my findings with data and peer reviewed papers NO But I can tell you that someone, somewhere in some government capacity better come up with a game plan for what may or may not be our next worst nightmare These nightmares are on the horizon Many have already brought them to the attention of those who should know Many have done nothing with what they have been told Countless lives could have been saved And countlesswill be lost Such catastrophic events like Fukoshima in Japan by simply raising the wall that surrounded the nuclear reactors, could have avoided the radioactive fallout that turned into a lethal and deadly event There are those among us who know what is coming, based on what has come before and the data that shows evidence of the possibility of new andhorrific events to come The mitigation by prevention will far outweigh the cost of the disaster This book gives us a look into the past and then forward into the future, telling accounts of events forewarned but not heeded And now the fast pace of new and burgeoning technology, with no oversight or controls in place and the hidden dangers of the errors within that cannot be quantified or legitimized as there is no previous record by which to draw conclusions of eminent dangers This is book puts into perspective what we should be concentrating and how we are wasting precious time if we continue to ignore the Cassandras of modern day life in a very fast paced world of unknowns Read it I implore you My own story has been well documented, on social media, but I have also begun to write about my journey My warning is that pulsed radiation in the form of two way transmitting devices, aka, smart meters and other such devices, is going to wreak havoc on humanity in manyways then we can possibly know today One thing is for sure, our brains were not meant to be radiated, 24 7 by pulsed radiation and powerful EMF s Complexity hides vulnerabilities, creating new problems or complicating existing ones Nowhere do we believe this tendency is clearer than in the inevitable convergence of two fields artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things Artificial intelligence programs running computer networks that control telecommunications, commerce, and infrastructure will increasingly talk with one another, resulting in unanticipated interactions and unexpected results These networks will communicate with your car, your home electronics, even your medical devices The initial algorithms are created by humans, but eventually lines of code will be written autonomously by software programs code writing code This evencomplex ecosystem will include deeply buried errors, inefficiencies, and vulnerabilities A formalized National Warning Office, in the Executive Office of the President, would be the administration s focal point for identifying disasters on the horizon See why you should read this book Do it


  4. Miles Miles says:

    Even for those who fastidiously avoid the news, to live in the modern world is to be bombarded with visions of catastrophe Our culture, our politics, our language these have all become saturated with promises of impending doom The psychological result of this predicament is among the most nefarious consequences of the global media s invasion of daily life, and contributes to incalculable suffering, most of it needless But only a fool would deny the many legitimate threats darkening the human Even for those who fastidiously avoid the news, to live in the modern world is to be bombarded with visions of catastrophe Our culture, our politics, our language these have all become saturated with promises of impending doom The psychological result of this predicament is among the most nefarious consequences of the global media s invasion of daily life, and contributes to incalculable suffering, most of it needless But only a fool would deny the many legitimate threats darkening the human horizon Given that cause for alarm is always available, how can we know when it is actually warranted Richard A Clarke and R.P Eddy s Warnings attempts to answer this question by positing a method for distinguishing between real, serious threats and imagined or overblown ones To do so, they invoke the myth of Cassandra, the princess of Troy who was blessed with supernatural foresight, but cursed because no one would believe her warnings about her beloved city s demise at the hands of the Greeks Cassandra has become a useful label for anyone who correctly predicts disaster but is tragically ignored Cassandras can be contrasted with Chicken Littles attention seeking pissants who raise alarm needlessly Clarke and Eddy s goal is to help readers learn to tell the difference Warnings is split into two parts Missed Warnings and Current Warnings Missed Warnings examines a group of seven verified Cassandras experts in various fields who saw disasters coming but were ignored , and Current Warnings presents a group of seven possible Cassandras experts now pounding the table about disasters looming ahead A transition chapter between parts presents the idea of a Cassandra Coefficient Clarke and Eddy s purportedly rigorous method for fishing true Cassandras from the ever roiling sea of Chicken Littles.Clarke and Eddy s Missed Warnings are the easy ones they stand on firm historical ground and their analysis doesn t require guessing about future events These chapters analyze a variety of recent disasters that could have been prevented or mitigated, and explore the reasons whywasn t done to ease the blow Clarke and Eddy convey these stories like thrillers, each anchored by an energetic but frustrated hero trying to get the world to wake up and smell the chaos Displaying a true talent for high octane nonfiction, Clarke and Eddy sharply outline each Cassandra s struggle to bend an unwilling world to his or her will, and coldly calculate the causes of each failure The topics are The invasion of Kuwait, Hurricane Katrina, the rise of Isis, the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster, Bernie Madoff s ponzi scheme, a mine collapse in West Virginia, and the 2008 Recession Warnings is full of obscure but useful terms that demonstrate the complexity of the world s resistance to Cassandras Perhaps the most important of these is Initial Occurrence Syndrome, the assumption that if a phenomenon had never happened before, it never would 34 IOS is a special case of availability bias, one that isdifficult to overcome because of the complete lack of precedent that would allow our brains to estimate the likelihood of such an event occurring 35 Clarke and Eddy stress that while we should always allow data and evidence to drive our predictions, it is never safe to conclude that unprecedented events will not happen Time and again, Cassandras are waived off by businesspeople and or government officials who claim that we shouldn t worry about things that have never happened.There is plenty of other noise drowning out the cries of Cassandras Here are some terms I found particularly edifying Scientific reticence A reluctance to make a judgment in the absence of perfect and complete data 79 Satisficing When a decision maker addresses the issue but doesn t solve the actual problem 116 Complexity mismatch Some decision makers are uncomfortable with the warning, in part because of its complexity and also because their lack of expertise may highlight their own inadequacies and make them dependent upon someone whose skills they cannot easily judge 178 These are just a few of the many interesting ways that Clarke and Eddy explain why individuals and institutions are not better at heeding Cassandras, even when evidence is readily available and, in some cases, irrefutable The most insidious aspect of these dynamics is that they don t typically result from intentional negligence or malice, but rather from the inherent shortcomings of human psychology.The chapters on Missed Warnings recount repeated failures of institutional systems that are nominally but not functionally meritocratic In the case of the invasion of Kuwait, the Cassandra was a US Intelligence operative empowered with a special ability to send an official Warning of War directly to President Bush s fax machine After choosing to exercise this power for the first time in his long and august career, he was promptly ignored by the White House 27 Thirteen months before Hurricane Katrina decimated New Orleans, FEMA conducted a simulation of a similar hurricane that predicted catastrophic damage and death, but nothing was done to strengthen the aging levies or prepare the city for the worst 39 40 One Cassandra saw through Bernie Madoff s ponzie scheme long before it ruined the lives of Madoff s many investors, but it didn t matter because Security and Exchange Commission officials couldn t understand the financial details of the information he presented to them 116.Those are the examples I found most upsetting, but all of Clarke and Eddy s case studies contain similar outrages the information is almost always available, but the folks in charge just won t hear the message It would appear that humans are actually quite good at setting up systems for analyzing potential disasters, but terrible at utilizing those systems when it counts The norm is to discredit or ignore Cassandras when responses to their warnings will be expensive and or politically contentious, which is almost always the case.Another important message is that communication styles matter a lot Many vindicated Cassandras failed in their missions not because they couldn t get the ears of the right people, but because they came off as alarmist, haughty or aloof I largely blame the decision makers for using something like demeanor as an excuse for denying hard evidence, but current and future Cassandras can and should learn from these examples Anyone seeking to head off a disaster should find a way sugarcoat the message without weakening it, if at all possible.My one criticism of Missed Warnings is that I think Clarke and Eddy overlooked an opportunity to distinguish between two kinds of disasters that seem quite different to me disasters that result primarily from nature physics, and ones that result primarily from human action Setting aside the fact that there is no principled distinction between the two human action is still a result of nature physics , I do think it is important to come down hard on those who fail to respond to disasters that are physically predictable hurricanes, earthquakes, etc , and also to give a bit of a break to those who don t see human caused disasters coming wars, financial collapses, etc Disasters always seem inevitable in hindsight, but before they strike, it seems much easier to be sure about something like an earthquake since it is not an issue of if but when it will occur A particular invasion or formation of a new militant group, however, may genuinely never occur and is thereforedifficult to plan for.Before moving on to Current Warnings, Clarke and Eddy present their proposed mechanism for identifying contemporary Cassandras the Cassandra Coefficient It is a simple series of questions derived from our observation of past Cassandra Events It involves four components 1 the warning, the threat, or risk in question, 2 the decision makers or audience who must react, 3 the predictor or possible Cassandra, and 4 the critics who disparage or reject the warning For each of the four components, we have several characteristics, which we have seen appear frequently in connection with past Cassandra events 168, emphasis theirs The Cassandra Coefficient is by all accounts a great concept one that I hope becomes common parlance in our discussions of how to frame the future of humanity Clarke and Eddy put forth a rigorous set of terms that fills out the profile for each component, as shown here Grids like this might send some readers scurrying for lighter reading, but I was delighted to receive precise definitions for each component and characteristic Unfortunately, the application of these terms in subsequent chapters proved far less robust than Clarke and Eddy led me to expect.The best part of the Cassandra Coefficient is that it fully accepts the modern reality that humans have created and are now embedded in communal, national, and global systems that are far too complex for any one person or organization to comprehend Systems can be so complex that even experts can t see the disaster looming within Complexity mismatch is a looming threat for government For the first time, technologists are now building machines that make decisions with rationale that even the creators don t fully understand The accelerating growth of technology makes it increasingly difficult for scientists, let alone bureaucrats, to decipher the risks Increasingly, we are operating or planning systems, software, or networks that no one person understands It takes a team, one of many diverse talents That team, however, is sometimes so large that it cannot be assembled in a conference room auditorium, or even in a stadium 178 9 Clarke and Eddy hit hard when it comes to the challenge of complexity, and yet I do not think they go far enough I personally do not believe that any team of humans no matter how numerous, experienced, or well educated can fully evaluate or analyze hypercomplex systems such as the global climate or the Internet We will need artificial intelligence, or perhaps even artificial superintelligence, to grok these systems on our behalf provided we can coax them into caring about us Clarke and Eddy address AI in the Current Warnings section, but sadly do not seem to take seriously the possibility that AI may be human civilization s only remaining route to sustained prosperity, even if that also means risking extinction.On the whole, the Current Warnings section is less successful than Missed Warnings The topics are artificial intelligence, pandemic disease, seal level rise, nuclear winter, the Internet of Everything, meteor strikes, and gene editing These chapters are all interesting and informative, but Clarke and Eddy fail to cash in on the promise of the Cassandra Coefficient, mostly by watering it down to the point where one wonders why they bothered to flesh it out so thoroughly in the first place The chapters end with cursory and inconsistent explanations of how the Coefficient applies to each situation Clarke and Eddy also provide a grid showing a Low, Moderate, or High score of each of the Coefficient s four components, but give little explanation for how those scores were reached These casual applications belie the meticulous methodology that made the chapter introducing the Cassandra Coefficient so engaging I was left musing about whether Clarke and Eddy ever decided what kind of book they wanted to write Or perhaps their careful analyses were diluted by editors seeking to appeal to a wider audience Whatever the case, the overall impact of Warnings suffers significantly.Despite this critical failing, there are some terrific and terrifying insights here By far the most distressing chapter is the one addressing sea level rise, which a highly credible Cassandra predicts will occur at a much swifter rate than most scientists are currently willing to admit Given the world s continued reluctance to take the climate bull by the horns in these crucial years, I find it highly probable that human civilization as we know it will not exist by 2100 Something much better than what we have now may emerge from the chaos, but we appear to be in for at least a century or two of wretched turmoil that only the very wealthiest humans will have any chance of weathering unscathed.Clarke and Eddy are careful to eschew relinquishment as a viable method of avoiding or escaping disasters Although some of their possible Cassandras naively posit relinquishment of modern technologies as a path forward 279 , Clarke and Eddy generally come off as followers of the proactionary principle If we wait for only perfect and precise information, we court disaster 234 Even if relinquishment would create a better world, this course of action is neither historically validated nor aligned with human nature For better or worse, humanity must press on, relying on our powers of innovation, creativity, and ambition Such striving need not be unethical, but ethics is not required for survival.Clarke and Eddy wrap up with a plangent call for a National Warning Office, which they think ought to be run by the US government s executive branch This small, elite team should not be part of the intelligence community, although it could task intelligence agencies to collect and analyze information Rather, the office would have a broad, even intentionally vague, mandate to look across all departmental boundaries for new and emerging threats The office should not address ongoing, chronic problems, such as obesity Rather, the focus should be on possible impending disasters that are not being addressed by any part of government 356 Present leadership notwithstanding, this is a laudable idea Couple this with advanced learning algorithms designed to pinpoint global weaknesses and engineer broad ranging solutions, and we might have a much better shot at avoiding future catastrophes.But let s be real Without exception, the process of obviating disasters before they occur is difficult and expensive Today s global leadership appears profoundly uninterested in tackling difficult and expensive problems Even worse, the biggest beneficiaries of such action tend to be poor, vulnerable populations those routinely ignored by elites with the power to create positive change Warnings doesn t leave me with much hope rather, I now have a much clearer idea of why and how humanity s future might reflect or even surpass the worst nightmares of Clarke and Eddy s possible Cassandras.This review was originally published on my blog, wordsdirt


  5. Mal Warwick Mal Warwick says:

    There is no lack of dire predictions about the future Hundreds of dystopian novels, especially the flood of books in that genre for young adults, have portrayed innumerable variations on future catastrophes I became so intrigued about all this attention to a possible dystopian future that I wrote a book about it It s called Hell on Earth What we can learn from dystopian fiction Now I ve found someone far better positioned to assess the likelihood that some of those dystopian scenarios might There is no lack of dire predictions about the future Hundreds of dystopian novels, especially the flood of books in that genre for young adults, have portrayed innumerable variations on future catastrophes I became so intrigued about all this attention to a possible dystopian future that I wrote a book about it It s called Hell on Earth What we can learn from dystopian fiction Now I ve found someone far better positioned to assess the likelihood that some of those dystopian scenarios might come to pass Richard A Clarke In collaboration with his colleague R P Eddy, the former U.S counterterrorism czar under three presidents has written Warnings Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes This is a deadly serious inquiry into the reality underlying predictions of a killer pandemic, sudden massive sea rise, a devastating meteor strike, runaway artificial intelligence, and other chilling possibilities.Accurate predictions of a dystopian futureIn Warnings, Clarke and Eddy dive deeply into the expert predictions of scientists, engineers, and journalists who have stuck their necks out, often against enormous resistance, to warn the U.S cassandra about seemingly unthinkable possibilities They call these stubborn and courageous individuals Cassandras after the princess of Troy in Greek mythology whose accurate predictions of disaster were forever doomed to be ignored However, in every case, Clarke and Eddy s Cassandras have been anything but ignored although some have labored for decades to be heard.Warnings is not simply a study of the brave people who have risked their careers to make exceedingly unpopular predictions based on their expertise The authors have undertaken to analyze the factors common to most Cassandras, deriving a Cassandra Coefficient based on four critical components the character of the threat or risk itself and how it is received the expertise and personality of the would be Cassandras the extent and character of resistance from the Cassandra s critics and the receptiveness of the decision makers they hope to influence.Eight Cassandras who were ignoredIn the book s first part, Missed Warnings, Clarke and Eddy relate the stories of eight Cassandras whose predictions were ignored Included are the military analyst who predicted Saddam Hussein s invasion of Kuwait in time for it to have been prevented the meteorologist who warned about the certainty of massive hurricane damage to New Orleans before Katrina the seismologist who is even today pleading with authorities to mitigate the damage of the catastrophic earthquake that is certain to strike the U.S Northwest and others It s a sobering account.Will these later Cassandras be ignored, too The second part of the book, Current Warnings, portrays the efforts of seven people who today are clamoring to be heard about the danger of such potential catastrophes as a massive meteor strike, a devastating pandemic, and runaway genetic engineering, among others Each is a grim cautionary tale In each chapter, the authors report on their interviews with the experts they portray as Cassandras If you re prone to worry, these accounts may keep you up at night Every one of the threats related in these chapters has the potential to yield a dystopian future.Richard A Clarke served as counterterrorism czar under Presidents George H W Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W Bush Following his departure from the White House in 2003, he gained widespread attention nationally with his harsh criticism of the Bush Administration s response to 9 11 He is the author of five nonfiction books and four novels


  6. Dan Graser Dan Graser says:

    This new work from Richard A Clarke and R.P Eddy is so far the biggest surprise of 2017 Written with great passion, clarity, and erudition, the book succeeds on several levels and avoids the many pitfalls that could accompany a book dealing with the issues presented.Richard Clarke, whose experience includes work in the State Department under Reagan through his days on the National Security Council of Presidents Clinton and Bush, and R.P Eddy, who served as Director of the National Security C This new work from Richard A Clarke and R.P Eddy is so far the biggest surprise of 2017 Written with great passion, clarity, and erudition, the book succeeds on several levels and avoids the many pitfalls that could accompany a book dealing with the issues presented.Richard Clarke, whose experience includes work in the State Department under Reagan through his days on the National Security Council of Presidents Clinton and Bush, and R.P Eddy, who served as Director of the National Security Council but is perhapsknown for his work as CEO of Ergo, have use the myth of the Trojan Kassandra Blessed by Apollo with the gift of seeing the future but cursed to the fate that no one would believe her, the authors take half of the book to explain several of theimportant Cassandras of recent memory, most of whom were viewedas Chicken Littles or mere alarmists constantly warning that the sky is falling.In a central chapter, the authors lay out several guidelines, based in their historical analysis, to identify likely current and future Cassandras dealing with what they claim are some of theimportant scenarios emergencies of our time This analysis is practical and well supported, even if it paints with a pretty broad brush.The last half of the work deals with these current Cassandras and the issues here are fascinating and likely well familiar to you already What makes them interesting beyond the daily pundit news discussions you may have already heard is the highlighting of the most important figures in these fields based on qualification, not on frequency of airtime and being quite honest with what is, that they see at least, the most dire consequences of inattention and inaction.Clarke and Eddy are fantastic guides through this huge range of topics and their subsequent recommendations moving forward are level headed pr cis to future engagement with these topics These topics included AI, manufactured Pandemic Disease, Sea Level Rise, and Gene Editing Highly Recommended


  7. Madly Jane Madly Jane says:

    Not for the faint of heart This is one interesting thesis I bought it for a synopsis on Hanse, the Cassandra on Climate Change Texas and Harvey are Cassandra Warnings Seeing Interstate 10 under water gave me the shivers That s the future.


  8. Paul Paul says:

    Excellent book It looks at past disasters Kuwait, Katrina, Isis, Fukushima, Bernie Madoff s Ponzi, Mine fires, and the 2008 recession , and the people who predicted them Then it looks at possible future disasters AI, epidemics, sea level rise, nuclear winter, the Internet of everything, meteors, and gene editing The author s idea is how do we find the future predictors The science here is not to hard to follow, and the chapter on how the Internet of Things relates to industrial utility Excellent book It looks at past disasters Kuwait, Katrina, Isis, Fukushima, Bernie Madoff s Ponzi, Mine fires, and the 2008 recession , and the people who predicted them Then it looks at possible future disasters AI, epidemics, sea level rise, nuclear winter, the Internet of everything, meteors, and gene editing The author s idea is how do we find the future predictors The science here is not to hard to follow, and the chapter on how the Internet of Things relates to industrial utility control systems is truth We don t know what the future will bring, and this is not a zombie apocalypse type of book But it gives good food for thought on how we might survive through the next 100 years or so


  9. Sean Sean says:

    I spent most of the last 2 days reading this book and I can t stop thinking about it I never heard of the author until I saw his book hits top book list and decided to give it a try The book is well written and has insight from a plethora of credible sources I felt that this book shed light on the many cassandras that exist in our modern world which I previously was not aware of, and most importantly the way in which a credible Cassandra can be determined.


  10. Craig Leighton Craig Leighton says:

    A quick read that allowed me to reflect on recent disasters and ask the question, could this have been avoided, or at least alleviated in some way This book provides excellent advice from some world class people that have done their research and lived through these catastrophes We needproblem solvers like this in our world Great read, can t wait to see what surprises these two authors have to offer their readers next


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